Mar 03 2009
U.S. in Afghanistan Until 2025? Say What???
Whenever I hear about the improving situation in Iraq and the deteriorating one in Afghanistan, a popular saying comes to mind: “Out of the frying pan and into the fire.”
According to Nathan Hodge of Blogwired.com, retired U.S. Army Gen. David Barno, the former head of coalition forces in
Afghanistan, recently told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee that the American military could remain in the landlocked country until at least the year 2025.
Barno’s estimate came from a strategy he presented to the committee, which “anticipates keeping U.S. troops there for another 16 years.”
Here a brief version of the general’s strategy, as related by Hodge.
- 2009 – Holding Operation: A surge of combat forces to protect the population during the upcoming presidential elections and to stabilize the security situation.
- 2009 – Holding Operation: A surge of combat forces to protect the population during the upcoming presidential elections and to stabilize the security situation
- 2010 – Counteroffensive: provide security to the population while building state institutions and mentoring the Afghan government
- 2015-2025 – Transition: continue selective transition — as security allows — and hand over control to responsible Afghan institutions
So there you have it folks! IF all goes well in Afghanistan, we will only be there for another 16 years. Add that to the number of years our boys in uniform have already spent over there since the U.S. invasion in October 2001 and you get a grand total of 24 years, give or take a year. And this is the best case scenario, at least according to Gen. Barno.
I don’t know about you, but 24 years sounds like a long time to me. We were in Vietnam for 16, and that war is considered to be our longest so far.
And how long will the job take if we have not turned that war-ridden land into a Capra-esque democracy by 2025? I don’t know, but a certain statement Sen. John McCain made during the 2008 election about staying in Iraq for a hundred years if necessary suddenly carries a chilling resonance.
Polls show a majority of the American people still support a vigorous prosecution of the war in Afghanistan, despite the fact that the conflict is already over seven years old and Osama bin Laden has yet to be captured or killed. Meanwhile, The Blackbearded Dude still keeps producing B-movies like a madman. He has become the Roger Corman of the Wahhabist film industry.
Can the country sustain this level of support in the long run? I suppose the answer to that question depends on how things develop on the ground. I can tell you this: If Obama’s surge does not work and the effort over there goes up in smoke – figuratively and literally – he will spend the rest of his term(s) running madly in place, unable to move forward and unable to go back.
Good luck, Mr. President, and happy hunting!
I think I have a pretty good idea when the US will leave Iraq… When they are out of oil.
It is the job of the military to provide military strategies for meeting the goals set for them by politicians. that is fine for military problems, but throw in political goals and activities, and the estimates go south from there. Generals are NOT politicians, no matter how political their jobs may be. Their outlook is skewed by the fact that they are trained as soldiers, and no amount of political shenanigans at the top of their command chain can change that.
If you want a military answer, ask a General, if you want a political answer, ask a diplomat.
I anticipate that Afghanistan will take a bit longer than Iraq based upon the fact that the situation there is more complex than Iraq was. There are two countries and an International border to deal with. There are essentially two enemies - Al Qaeda and the Taliban - with presumably two different agendas.
On the other side, there are I don’t remember how many warlords that run the different tribal territories in Afghanistan, plus a weak, corrupt central government.
What we should have learned from Iraq is that whatever we try to do government-wise in Afghanistan, it HAS to fit the culture. Certainly, we need to introduce modern democratic principles, but those principles, in practice, must fit the culture and the beliefs of the population in order for it to work. Otherwise, we are spinning our wheels.
2025? No way, Jose! 2015? Maybe so, with a slow drawdown of forces, assuming we manage to defeat the Taliban and AQ militarily, and then on the ground politically.
Oh, by the way, love the new look - very easy to read.
Great new look, excellent color. Afghanistan, without clearly defined goals, will weigh down foreign forces until we either leave, or the government of Afghanistan has had enough of our presence. The USSR found out how tough it was. Even for USSR generals dont believe a buildup will achieve anything. They tried it and it didn’t work for them. I am curious as to why we think it will work for us.
“2025? Really? I thought I read somewhere that Obama is pulling the troops out by 2010 but I didn’t know they’ll take THAT long for the handover.”
You’ve got your countries mixed up here. Obama plans to pull most of the troops from Iraq in 2010.
ndfenceofobama;
The difference is that the USSR was an invader, which none of the population supported, including their puppet government. The US is not, and is looked at, at the least, as a helping hand in tossing out the Taliban, which most of the population also did not support. Crucial difference.
If we can get back into the population’s good graces, and keep the Taliban on the run, we CAN win it there. But it’ll take both a military AND a civilian effort in truly helping lift the population out of poverty, at least as they see it.
oi… how many empires has that region taken down in its history? Every single one to mess with them?
Certainly the ones that tried to conquer them.
Thankfully, WE don’t intend to do that. As Oldfart said, IF we try to do the things we told them we’d do in the first place, if it’s not too late, then we have a chance to get the job done and get back out.
For some reason, Obama doesn’t strike me as the conquering type.